Noesis

Playbooks · the pro's toolkit

Ask like a professional.

The questions that separate retail investors from professionals aren't harder to phrase — they're harder to answer well because you don't know which factors to check. A playbook is a reusable answer template that carries a professional's checklist into a question you can run for any name, event, or macro release.

Explore by category and asker archetype below.

Early access — everything is free right now.

We're still building the live run engine. Tap 'Request this analysis' on any playbook and we'll run it for you by email. Tiered service (Free / Core / Premium) is on the roadmap.

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  • Move attribution

    👤 ⚡ 💎 📊

    Why did this stock move today?

    Rank the plausible causes of a single-name move with source citations and time-of-news markers.

    Example triggers
    • "why is <ticker> up/down"
    • "what's happening with <ticker>"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Historical analog

    💎 🌐 📊 ⚡

    When did this pattern happen before?

    Find the closest historical analogs to a market event and report what followed as a distribution — not an anecdote.

    Example triggers
    • "has this happened before"
    • "historical parallels for <event>"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Regulatory / legal

    💎 🌐 ⚖️

    How have similar lawsuits / antitrust cases played out?

    Trace how comparable regulatory / legal cases progressed and what remedies were ultimately imposed.

    Example triggers
    • "what happened in similar antitrust cases"
    • "how long do these lawsuits take"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Structural vs cyclical

    💎 🌐 📊

    Is this change structural or cyclical?

    Determine whether a change is a permanent re-rating (structural) or a swing that will mean-revert (cyclical).

    Example triggers
    • "is this the new normal"
    • "will <thing> recover"
    • "structural or cyclical"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Risk & sizing

    📊 ⚡ 💎

    How deep and how long — drawdown & recovery distribution

    For an event class, get the historical distribution of max drawdown, duration, and time-to-recovery.

    Example triggers
    • "how far could it fall"
    • "how long until recovery"
    • "worst case for <ticker>"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Positioning & flow

    💎 📊 ⚡

    What did institutional investors do this quarter?

    Parse the latest 13F filings to reveal who bought, who sold, and what that says about positioning.

    Example triggers
    • "who owns <ticker>"
    • "what did <fund> buy"
    • "berkshire 13f"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Corporate actions

    💎 ⚡ 👤

    What does a CEO / CFO / board change mean for the stock?

    Read a management change: bull signal (talented new CEO), bear signal (CFO fleeing accounting), or noise (planned succession).

    Example triggers
    • "<CEO> steps down"
    • "new CEO of <company>"
    • "CFO resignation"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Macro datapoint

    🌐 ⚡ 📊 ⚖️

    How should the market read this macro release?

    Decode a scheduled macro release (CPI, NFP, Fed, PMI, GDP) — headline vs composition vs policy repricing.

    Example triggers
    • "CPI came in at <X>"
    • "Fed decision today"
    • "NFP miss"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Competitive landscape

    ⚡ 📊 💎

    Who else moves when this stock / event moves?

    Map competitors, suppliers, customers, and substitutes — and rank the second-order plays.

    Example triggers
    • "who benefits from <event>"
    • "who loses from <event>"
    • "collateral impact of <X>"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Behavioral

    ⚡ 📊 💎

    Is this news already priced in?

    Determine whether the market has already absorbed the information — before you trade the news.

    Example triggers
    • "should I buy on this news"
    • "is this priced in"
    • "market didn't react — why"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Risk & sizing

    ⚡ 📊 💎 👤

    What would this trade have made — parameterized backtest

    If I invested X at Y on Z and held N days (or with +a%/-b% rules), what would the historical P&L look like — for a specific date OR across similar events?

    Example triggers
    • "if I bought <ticker> today and held N days"
    • "backtest this trade"
    • "what would this strategy have made"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Risk & sizing

    ⚡ 📊

    Backtest with exit rules (take-profit / stop-loss / trailing)

    Add take-profit, stop-loss, and trailing-stop rules to a backtest and measure how they reshape the return + risk distribution.

    Example triggers
    • "what if I stop out at -X%"
    • "take profit at +X%"
    • "trailing stop backtest"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Risk & sizing

    📊 ⚡ 💎

    Event-driven backtest — apply rule to all historical instances

    For any event class, run the same trade rule on every historical occurrence and report the P&L distribution — the workhorse of systematic strategy design.

    Example triggers
    • "backtest across all instances of <event>"
    • "if I had bought every time <X> happened"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Risk & sizing

    📊 💎 ⚡ 🌐

    Risk-adjusted metrics — Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, max DD

    Beyond raw returns — compute the industry-standard metrics that make strategies comparable across regimes and asset classes.

    Example triggers
    • "sharpe ratio"
    • "risk-adjusted return"
    • "max drawdown"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Risk & sizing

    📊 ⚡

    Walk-forward optimization — detect overfitting before it costs you

    Split the sample into in-sample tuning and out-of-sample validation windows, walk forward through time — the gold standard for detecting overfit strategies.

    Example triggers
    • "is this strategy overfit"
    • "walk forward validation"
    • "out of sample test"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Fundamental quality

    💎 📊 🌐

    How real are these earnings?

    Audit whether reported EPS reflects genuine cash earning power or accounting flattery — one-time gains, receivables stuffing, capitalized opex, changed reserves.

    Example triggers
    • "are <ticker>'s earnings clean"
    • "why is GAAP EPS lower than adjusted"
    • "is <ticker> channel stuffing"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Fundamental quality

    💎 🌐

    How durable is this company's moat?

    Score a company's competitive moat across 5 lenses (network effects, scale, brand, switching costs, IP) and flag which lens is eroding.

    Example triggers
    • "does <ticker> have a moat"
    • "is <ticker>'s competitive advantage sustainable"
    • "will <company> get disrupted"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Fundamental quality

    💎 📊

    Is working capital hiding trouble?

    Track DSO / DPO / DIO trends to spot deteriorating collections, channel stuffing, supplier squeezing, or inventory build before the P&L shows it.

    Example triggers
    • "why is <ticker>'s cash flow weaker than earnings"
    • "days sales outstanding trend"
    • "is <ticker> channel stuffing"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Fundamental quality

    💎 📊 🌐

    What's driving margins up or down?

    Decompose gross/operating/net margin change into price, volume, mix, cost, and one-off components — separates real operating leverage from cyclical tailwinds.

    Example triggers
    • "why did <ticker>'s margins improve"
    • "is this margin expansion sustainable"
    • "gross margin decomposition"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Valuation

    💎 ⚡ 📊

    How does this stock's valuation compare to peers?

    Compare a stock's EV/EBITDA, P/E, P/B, EV/Sales, and EV/FCF to a defensible peer set — adjusted for growth, margin, and capital-intensity differences.

    Example triggers
    • "is <ticker> cheap"
    • "how does <ticker> compare to <peer>"
    • "valuation vs peers"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Valuation

    💎 📊

    DCF with sensitivity to discount rate, growth, and margin

    Build a discounted-cash-flow model and stress-test the answer against discount rate, terminal growth, margin, and reinvestment assumptions — output as a tornado, not a point.

    Example triggers
    • "intrinsic value of <ticker>"
    • "DCF for <ticker>"
    • "what's <ticker> worth"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Valuation

    💎 📊 🌐

    What growth rate does today's price require?

    Invert the DCF — instead of estimating value from assumptions, back out the growth/margin combination the market is already pricing, then ask whether that's plausible.

    Example triggers
    • "what does the market expect for <ticker>"
    • "implied growth rate"
    • "is <ticker> priced for perfection"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Valuation

    💎 📊 🌐

    Was that return from earnings, or from re-rating?

    Decompose a stock's total return into (a) EPS growth, (b) multiple expansion/contraction, and (c) dividends — separates fundamental progress from mood-driven re-rating.

    Example triggers
    • "why did <ticker> go up so much"
    • "is <ticker>'s rally justified by earnings"
    • "P/E expansion or earnings growth"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Cross-asset

    📊 🌐 💎

    What is the bond market telling us that equities aren't?

    Read the yield curve, credit spreads, TIPS breakevens, and MOVE index as leading indicators for equity — flag divergences where one asset class is smarter than the other.

    Example triggers
    • "yield curve signal"
    • "credit spreads widening"
    • "bond vs equity divergence"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Cross-asset

    📊 🌐 ⚡

    What is the dollar / commodity / equity triangle saying?

    Read the DXY-commodity-equity triangle for regime signal — 4 quadrants (strong/weak dollar × up/down commodities) each have distinct equity-sector implications.

    Example triggers
    • "why are commodities rallying"
    • "dollar strength impact on stocks"
    • "risk on / risk off signal"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Cross-asset

    📊 🌐 ⚖️

    When do credit spreads signal that trouble is coming?

    Monitor IG and HY spread levels, trajectory, and divergences from equity as an early-warning system for corporate stress and recession.

    Example triggers
    • "credit spreads widening"
    • "junk bond spread"
    • "is credit stressed"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Positioning & flow

    📊 ⚡

    What is dealer gamma positioning implying for index moves?

    Read dealer gamma exposure (GEX), put/call ratios, and vol-of-vol to identify when option-market dynamics will suppress or amplify index moves.

    Example triggers
    • "dealer gamma"
    • "gex level"
    • "why is SPX so pinned"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Positioning & flow

    📊 ⚡

    Where are CTAs positioned, and what price breaks their trend?

    Estimate systematic CTA and trend-follower positioning by asset, identify the price levels that flip them from long to short (or vice versa) — the "un-wind trigger."

    Example triggers
    • "CTA positioning"
    • "trend followers"
    • "systematic un-wind"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Positioning & flow

    📊 💎

    Which names are dangerously crowded by hedge funds?

    Identify the most-owned names in hedge-fund 13F holdings (and biggest short-interest names) — high crowding = large unwind risk when the theme breaks.

    Example triggers
    • "hedge fund crowding"
    • "most-owned by hedge funds"
    • "crowded trade"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Regulatory / legal

    ⚖️ 🌐 💎

    How exposed is this company to sanctions regimes?

    Assess direct and secondary sanctions risk for a company — revenue mix by jurisdiction, sanctioned counterparties, secondary-sanction chokepoints, and known enforcement patterns.

    Example triggers
    • "sanctions risk for <ticker>"
    • "OFAC exposure"
    • "Russia / Iran / China chip sanctions"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Regulatory / legal

    ⚖️ 💎 🌐

    What antitrust remedy is likely — and what's the stock impact?

    For an active antitrust case, forecast the likely remedy (behavioral vs structural vs blocked) using DOJ/FTC/EC precedent — and map each outcome to stock impact.

    Example triggers
    • "DOJ antitrust <ticker>"
    • "FTC remedy"
    • "will they be broken up"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Macro datapoint

    🌐 ⚡ 📊

    What did the Fed dot plot really say?

    Decode the SEP / dot plot changes vs the prior release — median dot, distribution shape, long-run neutral rate shift, and the hawkish/dovish surprise scale vs market-priced.

    Example triggers
    • "Fed dot plot"
    • "SEP update"
    • "FOMC projections"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Macro datapoint

    🌐 📊 💎 ⚖️

    What does yield curve inversion mean for equities and cycle?

    Interpret 2s10s and 3m10y inversions in historical context — average lead to recession, false-positive rate, and the equity implication depending on inversion phase.

    Example triggers
    • "yield curve inverted"
    • "2s10s"
    • "recession indicator"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Macro datapoint

    🌐 📊 ⚖️

    How should the market read this Chinese macro data?

    Decode Chinese CPI, PPI, PMI, credit growth (TSF), and export data — accounting for known statistical revisions, seasonal adjustments, and the "official vs Caixin" split.

    Example triggers
    • "China CPI"
    • "China PMI"
    • "TSF"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Corporate actions

    💎 📊

    Is this buyback a real signal or accounting cosmetics?

    Test whether a buyback actually shrinks share count and returns value — or is offset by stock-based compensation dilution, funded by debt, or announced at expensive valuation.

    Example triggers
    • "<ticker> buyback"
    • "share repurchase"
    • "capital return program"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Corporate actions

    💎 📊

    Will this spinoff actually unlock value?

    For an announced spinoff, forecast the parent + spinoff combined value vs pre-announcement — using precedent behavior of spinoffs and parent-remnant multiples.

    Example triggers
    • "<ticker> spinoff"
    • "spin-off value"
    • "conglomerate breakup"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Behavioral

    📊 ⚡ 💎

    Is this narrative saturated (or still early)?

    Score how saturated a market narrative is (AI, GLP-1, EV) using search volume, analyst mention counts, fund positioning surveys, and cover-of-magazine indicator.

    Example triggers
    • "is AI trade over"
    • "is this narrative priced in"
    • "when do fads peak"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Behavioral

    📊 ⚡

    How much of this trade is retail-driven?

    Estimate retail participation in a specific name or theme using options volume patterns, small-lot ratio, brokerage inflow data, and social media chatter.

    Example triggers
    • "is retail buying <ticker>"
    • "meme stock signal"
    • "retail flow"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Move attribution

    📊 ⚡ 🌐

    What is the day's sector rotation telling us about the regime?

    Interpret which sectors led and lagged today (or this week) and match the pattern to macro-regime interpretations — early cycle, late cycle, risk-on, risk-off, or rotation.

    Example triggers
    • "sector rotation today"
    • "why is energy up but tech down"
    • "what regime is the market pricing"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Risk & sizing

    ⚖️ 🌐 📊

    Is this event a systemic risk or contained?

    For a specific stress event (bank failure, hedge-fund blowup, sovereign default), assess systemic-risk propagation using contagion channels, counterparty exposure, and precedent.

    Example triggers
    • "is <bank> failure systemic"
    • "hedge fund blowup"
    • "sovereign default risk"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Positioning & flow

    💎 📊 ⚡ 👤

    Is this insider purchase a real signal?

    Score an SEC Form 4 insider purchase by conviction (open-market vs option-exercise), size (vs prior comp), timing (blackout window), history (previous buys), and 10b5-1 status — then back-test what similar CEO/CFO buys did next.

    Example triggers
    • "<CEO> bought <ticker>"
    • "insider buying <ticker>"
    • "Form 4 filing"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Regulatory / legal

    💎 📊 ⚖️ ⚡

    What did the SEC filings just say?

    Continuously watch SEC EDGAR for material 8-K events, Form 4 insider transactions, 13D/13G activist stakes, and 10-K red-flag language for a watchlist — and route each event to the right follow-up playbook.

    Example triggers
    • "new 8-K for <ticker>"
    • "13D filing"
    • "insider transactions <ticker>"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17
  • Move attribution

    ⚡ 👤

    What just moved this stock after-hours?

    Identify the driver of an after-hours or pre-market move — earnings, guidance, filing, news wire, or sympathy move — and estimate whether the regular-session open will hold, fade, or extend.

    Example triggers
    • "why is <ticker> up in after-hours"
    • "<ticker> pre-market -8%"
    • "what happened to <ticker> overnight"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Regulatory / legal

    💎 ⚖️ ⚡

    How much does this class-action lawsuit actually cost the stock?

    For a filed securities class action or product-liability suit, estimate the eventual settlement / verdict cost using historical settlement ratios, market-cap-loss theory, and comparable case outcomes.

    Example triggers
    • "<ticker> class action filed"
    • "how much will <ticker> pay for this lawsuit"
    • "does this lawsuit matter for the stock"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Structural vs cyclical

    🌐 💎 📊 ⚖️

    Are we in a commodity supercycle?

    Test whether a commodity price rally is a genuine multi-decade supercycle (real supply constraint + secular demand) or a cyclical spike — determines whether producers deserve multiple re-rating.

    Example triggers
    • "is copper in a supercycle"
    • "are we in another commodity supercycle"
    • "does the green transition mean permanent high metal prices"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Risk & sizing

    📊 👤 💎

    How correlated are my portfolio positions really?

    Assess portfolio-wide correlation risk — position pairwise correlations, cluster analysis, factor exposures — to identify concealed concentration ("I own 20 stocks but they all correlate 0.8").

    Example triggers
    • "am I really diversified"
    • "how correlated are my positions"
    • "will my portfolio all fall together"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Macro datapoint

    🌐 ⚡ 📊

    How should the market read this CPI print?

    Decode a US CPI release — headline vs core, month-over-month vs year-over-year, key sub-components (shelter, services, goods, energy), and market-implied Fed response.

    Example triggers
    • "CPI came in at <X>"
    • "how should stocks react to today's inflation print"
    • "was CPI hawkish or dovish"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Historical analog

    🌐 ⚖️ 📊

    How have equities responded to past currency devaluations?

    For a sudden currency devaluation (EM or DM), find the closest historical analogs and report distributions of local equity index performance, USD-based-holder returns, and contagion to other markets.

    Example triggers
    • "how did stocks do after Mexican peso devaluation"
    • "is this like 1997 Asia or 2018 Turkey"
    • "what happens when a country devalues"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Fundamental quality

    💎 📊 🌐

    How exposed is this company to customer concentration?

    Measure customer concentration risk — top-1, top-5, top-10 customer % of revenue, contract terms, key-customer credit health — and estimate the earnings hit if the largest customer walks.

    Example triggers
    • "how concentrated is <ticker>'s customer base"
    • "what happens if <big-customer> leaves <ticker>"
    • "is <ticker> dependent on one customer"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Corporate actions

    💎 📊 👤

    What does this dividend cut really signal?

    Read a dividend cut in context — payout ratio, cash-flow trend, sector precedents, management framing, and historical post-cut equity performance — to distinguish "kitchen sink" reset from "real distress."

    Example triggers
    • "<ticker> cut its dividend"
    • "should I sell after a dividend cut"
    • "is this cut a buy signal"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Behavioral

    👤 💎

    Should I invest a lump sum now or dollar-cost-average in?

    Compare lump-sum investing vs dollar-cost-averaging using historical evidence, current market conditions, and behavioral considerations — reveals that lump-sum wins mathematically ~68% of the time but DCA reduces regret risk.

    Example triggers
    • "should I invest all at once or spread it out"
    • "is now a good time to lump-sum"
    • "how long should I DCA over"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Structural vs cyclical

    💎 🌐 ⚖️ 👤

    Who wins and loses in the energy transition?

    Map the multi-decade energy transition (fossil fuel → electrification + renewables + storage) to specific value pools shifting between sectors — and identify which are structural winners vs cyclical beneficiaries.

    Example triggers
    • "which stocks benefit from the energy transition"
    • "will oil companies survive"
    • "is renewable energy investable"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Positioning & flow

    📊 ⚡

    What does this ETF inclusion or exclusion do to the stock?

    Estimate the price impact of a stock's addition to (or removal from) a major index or ETF, based on passive AUM tracking, effective free float, and historical inclusion-effect studies.

    Example triggers
    • "<ticker> being added to S&P 500"
    • "how much will S&P 500 inclusion move <ticker>"
    • "does index inclusion still matter"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Behavioral

    👤

    I've never bought a stock — what's the professional starting framework?

    The absolute-beginner framework for a first-time investor — account types, asset allocation basics, index vs single stocks, contribution priority, and what to avoid doing in the first year.

    Example triggers
    • "how do I start investing"
    • "I have $5K to invest — what do I buy first"
    • "should I buy stocks or index funds first"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Regulatory / legal

    ⚖️ 💎 👤

    How exposed is this ADR to delisting risk?

    For an ADR of a foreign-domiciled company, assess US-listing continuation risk from HFCAA, national-security review, or home-country political actions — and what delisting mechanically does to the shares.

    Example triggers
    • "will <adr> be delisted from US exchanges"
    • "what happens if China ADRs are delisted"
    • "is <ticker> at delisting risk"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Corporate actions

    💎 📊 ⚡

    What does this going-private transaction mean?

    Interpret a going-private deal (PE buyout, management buyout, family-office take-private) — deal-quality signals, arb spread analysis, historical bump probability, and antitrust risk.

    Example triggers
    • "<ticker> going private for $X"
    • "should I sell my <ticker> after the deal announcement"
    • "will there be a bump"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Cross-asset

    🌐 📊 💎

    What is gold telling us about real rates and central-bank credibility?

    Interpret gold price moves through the historical framework of real rates + USD + central-bank credibility — separates "inflation hedge" moves from "sovereign risk" moves from "USD reversal" moves.

    Example triggers
    • "why is gold at record highs"
    • "gold and real rates are decoupling"
    • "is gold signaling loss of Fed credibility"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Valuation

    💎 📊

    What hidden assets does this company have?

    Search the balance sheet, footnotes, and MD&A for undervalued assets (owned real estate, minority stakes, tax NOLs, patents, land) that are carried below market value or not fully reflected in book — often 10-30% of market cap.

    Example triggers
    • "does <ticker> have hidden assets"
    • "what real estate does <ticker> own"
    • "how much is <ticker>'s minority stake in <company> worth"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Risk & sizing

    👤 💎

    How do I optimize my HSA as a triple-tax-advantaged investment account?

    Use a Health Savings Account not as a healthcare spending account but as the most tax-advantaged retirement account available — triple tax benefit (deductible in, tax-free growth, tax-free out for medical) with proper multi-decade strategy.

    Example triggers
    • "should I max my HSA"
    • "can I invest my HSA money"
    • "what's the HSA strategy"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Move attribution

    ⚡ 📊 👤

    Is this an index move or a name-specific move?

    Decompose a stock's daily return into (a) market beta, (b) sector rotation, and (c) idiosyncratic — separates 'everything moved' from 'this one moved for a reason.'

    Example triggers
    • "why did <ticker> drop today"
    • "is <ticker> underperforming or is the market down"
    • "how much of <ticker>'s move is beta"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Behavioral

    💎 📊 ⚡ 👤

    Should I worry about this insider selling?

    Distinguish routine insider sales (10b5-1 plans, diversification) from information-driven sales — using transaction pattern, size, timing relative to catalysts, and cluster analysis.

    Example triggers
    • "<CEO> just sold $50M — should I sell too"
    • "why did <insider> dump stock"
    • "is this insider selling a warning"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Behavioral

    ⚡ 📊 👤

    How normal is this IPO's first-day pop?

    Compare an IPO's first-day pop against historical distributions by sector, offering size, and market regime — separating 'normal underwriting discount' (~10-20%) from 'hot deal froth' (50%+) that historically leads to poor 1-year returns.

    Example triggers
    • "<ipo> popped 80% on day 1 — is this normal"
    • "does the IPO pop mean anything"
    • "should I buy at the open after IPO"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Cross-asset

    📊 🌐 ⚡

    Is a yen carry unwind happening?

    Assess yen carry-trade unwind risk — JPY appreciation velocity, BoJ policy signals, Nikkei-JPY correlation, and cross-asset volatility spillover — and estimate impact on global risk assets.

    Example triggers
    • "yen just surged 3% — is this a carry unwind"
    • "will the BoJ hike again"
    • "what happens to US stocks if yen strengthens"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Risk & sizing

    📊 ⚡ 💎

    What is the Kelly-optimal position size for this bet?

    Apply the Kelly criterion to size a position based on estimated edge, payoff distribution, and correlation with existing positions — and adjust for real-world uncertainty using fractional Kelly.

    Example triggers
    • "how big a position should I take"
    • "what's the Kelly optimal for this trade"
    • "should I go all-in on high-conviction ideas"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Valuation

    💎 📊 ⚡

    Could this company be taken private in an LBO?

    Test whether a public company is a plausible leveraged-buyout target — free cash flow stability, debt capacity, ownership structure, size, and industry precedent — providing an implied floor valuation.

    Example triggers
    • "is <ticker> a takeover target"
    • "could KKR buy <ticker>"
    • "what's the LBO floor for <ticker>"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Structural vs cyclical

    💎 🌐 📊

    Is this margin expansion structural or cyclical?

    For a company or sector showing margin expansion, decompose whether it's structural (moat, scale, mix shift) or cyclical (input costs down, pricing tailwind, temporary demand) — determines whether to capitalize the gain.

    Example triggers
    • "<ticker>'s operating margin hit a record — will it stick"
    • "is US corporate profit share sustainable"
    • "are we in a permanent higher-margin regime"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Competitive landscape

    📊 💎 🌐

    Who is gaining and losing market share right now?

    Track market share shifts within a category using revenue growth spreads, unit sales data, retail scan data, and customer-win disclosures — early signal of winning franchises vs share-loss decline.

    Example triggers
    • "who is winning share in <category>"
    • "is <ticker> losing share to <competitor>"
    • "why is <ticker>'s growth so much lower than the industry"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Macro datapoint

    👤 🌐

    Is now the right time to refinance my mortgage?

    Evaluate a mortgage refinance decision — current rate vs new available rate, closing costs vs monthly savings, break-even period, remaining loan term, and interest-rate expectations.

    Example triggers
    • "should I refinance my mortgage"
    • "rates dropped 0.5% — worth it"
    • "how long to break even on refi"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Competitive landscape

    💎 📊 🌐

    How disruptive is this new entrant to the incumbent?

    Score a new entrant's threat to incumbents — technology advantage, funding, unit economics, customer traction, and moat overlap — to distinguish 'hype disruptor' from 'structural threat.'

    Example triggers
    • "will <new-company> kill <incumbent>"
    • "is <startup> a real threat to <ticker>"
    • "should I sell <incumbent> because of <disruptor>"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Macro datapoint

    🌐 ⚡ 📊

    How should the market read this NFP print?

    Decode the monthly nonfarm payrolls release — headline change, unemployment rate, wages, revisions, participation — and estimate the market-implied Fed reaction and equity/bond/USD move.

    Example triggers
    • "how should stocks react to today's jobs number"
    • "was NFP bullish or bearish"
    • "what does <X>k payrolls mean"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Cross-asset

    🌐 📊 ⚖️ ⚡

    What is this oil price shock signaling?

    Decode a rapid oil price move (10%+ in a week) — separates supply-driven, demand-driven, geopolitical, and financial (positioning) shocks and maps each to distinct equity, bond, and USD implications.

    Example triggers
    • "why did oil jump 10% today"
    • "is this a supply shock or demand shock"
    • "what does the oil spike mean for stocks"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Historical analog

    🌐 📊 💎 ⚖️

    How have markets responded to past oil price shocks?

    For a current oil price shock, find the closest historical analogs and report distributions of S&P total return, sector rotation, and CPI pass-through by shock magnitude and geopolitical vs supply origin.

    Example triggers
    • "oil just jumped 15% — what happens to stocks"
    • "is this like 1973 or 2008"
    • "how much does oil price go into CPI"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Positioning & flow

    ⚡ 📊

    Will this stock pin to a strike at options expiration?

    Assess pinning risk around a monthly or quarterly options expiration — dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain strike, open-interest concentration — and forecast whether the stock will gravitate toward a specific strike into the close.

    Example triggers
    • "will <ticker> pin to $150 at expiry"
    • "what is max pain for <ticker>"
    • "does pinning still work"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Move attribution

    ⚡ 📊

    Was this move within or beyond what options predicted?

    Compare the actual move to the at-the-money straddle-implied move — separates 'market got the magnitude right' from 'market was surprised' and calibrates future straddle bets.

    Example triggers
    • "<ticker> moved 8% today — was that priced in"
    • "was the earnings move bigger than implied"
    • "did the straddle price the CPI correctly"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Competitive landscape

    💎 🌐 👤

    Who wins and loses in this platform / technology shift?

    Map a technology platform shift (cloud, AI, mobile, EV) to specific winners and losers — infrastructure providers vs app developers vs displaced incumbents — using historical technology-shift templates.

    Example triggers
    • "who wins in AI"
    • "who benefits from cloud"
    • "will <incumbent> survive the shift to <new-platform>"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Macro datapoint

    🌐 📊 ⚡

    What is this PMI reading signaling?

    Decode ISM Manufacturing / Services PMI releases — the 50-line, sub-indexes (new orders, employment, prices, backlog), and regional PMIs — for what they signal about growth, inflation, and equity leadership.

    Example triggers
    • "ISM PMI came in at <X>"
    • "what does 48 PMI mean for stocks"
    • "is manufacturing in recession"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Competitive landscape

    💎 📊 🌐

    How much pricing power does this company actually have?

    Test a company's true pricing power — historical price/volume elasticity, competitor pricing behavior, contract escalators, and price-vs-inflation pass-through — to determine whether it's a 'must have' or a 'nice to have.'

    Example triggers
    • "does <ticker> have pricing power"
    • "will <ticker> hold price against inflation"
    • "why can't <ticker> raise prices"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Historical analog

    🌐 📊 💎 👤

    How have equities behaved in similar rate-hike cycles?

    Map the current Fed rate-hike cycle to the closest historical analogs — pace, terminal rate, real-rate path — and report distributions of S&P returns, sector leadership, and recession timing.

    Example triggers
    • "how did stocks do in past rate hike cycles"
    • "is this like 1994 or 2004 or 2022"
    • "what happens to stocks when the Fed stops hiking"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Risk & sizing

    👤 💎

    Is my portfolio drifted enough to need rebalancing?

    Check whether a portfolio has drifted beyond target-allocation bands — trigger rules (calendar vs threshold), tax-efficient rebalance techniques, and cost-benefit analysis of when to act.

    Example triggers
    • "should I rebalance my portfolio"
    • "how much has my allocation drifted"
    • "when to rebalance"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Fundamental quality

    💎 📊 🌐

    How high-quality is this revenue?

    Score reported revenue quality — recurring vs one-time, cash-collected vs booked, organic vs acquired, US GAAP vs 'adjusted' — to determine whether the top line deserves the multiple the market is paying.

    Example triggers
    • "is <ticker>'s revenue growth real"
    • "how much of <ticker>'s revenue is recurring"
    • "why is <ticker>'s revenue growing but cash flow isn't"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Risk & sizing

    👤 💎

    Should I do a Roth conversion this year?

    Evaluate whether the current year is optimal for a traditional-IRA-to-Roth conversion — current vs future marginal rate, market drawdown timing, Medicare IRMAA thresholds, and multi-year conversion strategy.

    Example triggers
    • "should I do a Roth conversion"
    • "market is down, is now a good time to convert"
    • "how much to convert this year"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Regulatory / legal

    ⚖️ 💎 📊

    What does this SEC enforcement action mean for the stock?

    Interpret an SEC / DOJ enforcement action (Wells Notice, subpoena, formal investigation, litigation) — score by severity, likely resolution, and probability of secondary triggers (class actions, credit rating, executive turnover).

    Example triggers
    • "<ticker> received Wells Notice"
    • "SEC investigating <ticker>"
    • "what happens when the SEC subpoenas a company"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Corporate actions

    📊 💎 👤

    How dilutive is this secondary offering?

    Assess a secondary equity offering's dilution impact — offering size % of float, use of proceeds, pricing discount, insider participation, and stock reaction — to distinguish 'growth capital' from 'desperate capital.'

    Example triggers
    • "<ticker> filed a secondary offering"
    • "how dilutive is this raise"
    • "should I sell before the pricing"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Structural vs cyclical

    💎 🌐 📊

    Is this demand growth secular or cyclical?

    For a category showing strong demand growth (data-center power, GLP-1 drugs, EV batteries), decompose whether it's a secular trend (adoption S-curve) or cyclical (inventory, capex over-order, one-off pull-forward).

    Example triggers
    • "is data-center demand secular or cyclical"
    • "will GLP-1 sales keep growing"
    • "is this a real trend or a cycle"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Behavioral

    💎 📊 ⚡

    Are we at a sentiment extreme worth fading?

    Combine multiple sentiment indicators (AAII, put/call, VIX, fund manager surveys, media narrative) into a composite score to identify contrarian entry / exit points at genuine extremes.

    Example triggers
    • "is sentiment too bearish"
    • "everyone is scared — time to buy"
    • "is the market too euphoric"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Positioning & flow

    ⚡ 📊 👤

    Is this name at short-squeeze risk?

    Score a name's short-squeeze setup from short interest % of float, days-to-cover, borrow cost, call-option skew, and catalyst calendar — separates squeeze-vulnerable names from noise.

    Example triggers
    • "is <ticker> going to squeeze"
    • "how high can this squeeze"
    • "should I short <ticker> with 30% short interest"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Fundamental quality

    💎 📊

    How much is stock-based compensation actually costing shareholders?

    Quantify SBC's real dilution and cash cost — vesting schedules, buyback offsets, adjusted vs GAAP EPS gap — to determine whether 'adjusted' earnings are honest or whitewash.

    Example triggers
    • "how much stock-based comp is <ticker> paying"
    • "is the buyback offsetting dilution"
    • "why is GAAP EPS so different from adjusted"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Corporate actions

    👤 ⚡ 📊

    Does a stock split actually mean anything?

    Evaluate whether a stock split is a meaningful signal — historical post-split return studies, retail-accessibility effect, options market participation — vs pure cosmetic accounting.

    Example triggers
    • "does a stock split matter"
    • "should I buy <ticker> after the split"
    • "why does <ticker> keep splitting"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Valuation

    💎 📊

    What's the sum-of-parts value of this conglomerate?

    Value a multi-segment company as the sum of its parts using peer-group multiples per segment — reveals hidden value (conglomerate discount) or hidden risk (segment losses masked by consolidation).

    Example triggers
    • "what is <conglomerate> worth broken up"
    • "sum of parts <ticker>"
    • "is <ticker> trading at a conglomerate discount"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Fundamental quality

    💎 ⚖️ 🌐

    How exposed is this company to supplier concentration?

    Measure supplier concentration risk — top-1, top-5 supplier dependencies, geographic concentration, single-sourced components — and estimate margin / operations impact if a critical supplier is disrupted.

    Example triggers
    • "who supplies <ticker>"
    • "what if <supplier> stops shipping"
    • "is <ticker> single-sourced"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Risk & sizing

    👤 💎

    What tax-loss harvesting opportunities exist in my portfolio right now?

    Scan a taxable portfolio for tax-loss-harvesting opportunities — losses to realize, wash-sale rules, tax-lot-level accounting, and substitute securities — to reduce current-year tax without changing market exposure.

    Example triggers
    • "should I harvest tax losses"
    • "what's my capital gains this year"
    • "wash-sale rules for <ticker>"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
  • Historical analog

    💎 📊 🌐 👤

    How have past tech bubbles unwound?

    For a suspected tech / narrative bubble, find the closest historical analogs — dot-com, 1972 Nifty Fifty, 2021 SPACs — and report the drawdown depth, duration, and which subset of names survived.

    Example triggers
    • "is this an AI bubble"
    • "is this like 1999"
    • "how deep did the dot-com crash go"
    Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19

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